Dynamics Between Next Week’s FOMC Decision, Elevated Short Interest, And Options Expiry

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Next week, the FOMC meets. The two-day meeting, the year’s last and a highly anticipated one, ends Wednesday.  A rate hike is widely expected.  The fed funds rate has been stuck near zero for the past nine years. Markets currently … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 1, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Will it or wouldn’t it?  Will the Fed switch into a tightening mode in the face of U.S. manufacturing just entering contraction? In … Continued

Extremely Rare For Fed To Tighten When ISM Manufacturing Is In Contraction Mode

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

It can potentially be a momentous day.  December 16th, that is.  That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 17, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hawks are in, doves are out. At least that is how markets are beginning to bet on the odds of an interest-rate hike … Continued

TLT Weekly Short Put — Willing To Go Long Near Three-Year Support

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Two-year Treasury yields – supposedly the most sensitive to Fed policy – are acting as if they are beginning to price in a December hike.  On October 14th, the two-year Treasury bill yielded 0.57 percent; by November 6th, the yield … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 10, 2015.  Change is week-over-week.  (Due to Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday.) 10-year note: “Muted global economic growth will not support a … Continued

With Fundamentals Unlikely To Improve Any Time Soon, Watching Technicals For Signal

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve vice chair, last week stated that U.S. inflation should rebound next year.  As things stand now, government data do not show much inflation. In September, consumer prices, measured by the consumer price index, were unchanged in … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of November 3, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Three prominent Fed officials tried to convince the markets this week that December was in play in earnest. Testifying before the House Financial … Continued