The chart below has fodder for both bulls and bears. At least going back to the last three decades – encompassing three recessions, including Great Recession – there have been five occasions in which the spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued
What a start? The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start. The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year. Some others like the … Continued
With 2015 now in the annals of history, the message that came out can be described as mixed at best and bearish at worst. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7 percent last year – essentially flat (Chart 1). The Nasdaq … Continued
The long-awaited liftoff is here. On Wednesday, the target range for the fed funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent – from the previous range of zero to 0.25 percent. This is the first hike since 2006; … Continued
The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today. Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued
It can potentially be a momentous day. December 16th, that is. That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued
SMH, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF, does not act well. What might be the message for semis in particular and stocks in general? Before we try to draw an out-and-out negative conclusion from this, let us remember that between the … Continued
U.S. exports have been under pressure since they peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14; 2Q15 was $2.28 trillion. As a percent of nominal GDP, exports’ share in 2Q15 was a full percentage point lower … Continued
2134.72. That is the all-time record the S&P 500 Index (1948.86) notched on May 20. It is possible in the annals of stock market history this high will be viewed with the same level of trepidation/respect as 1553.11 (March 2000 … Continued
Last week when the advance report on U.S. durable goods for June was published, new orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – used as proxy for business capital expenditures – were $68.4 billion, and May was reported as $67.8 billion. … Continued