Small-caps are lagging. With a large domestic exposure, these companies offer a reliable way to take a pulse of the economy. Rates have gone up a lot and will rise even more. A recession is imminent next year. Large-caps’ recent … Continued
The 3Q earnings reporting season just began. Revision trend has been down. Given the tightening monetary policy and the deteriorating outlook for next year, it is possible managements begin to lower guidance for next year, bringing into question the sell-side’s … Continued
Next year’s earnings estimates for US companies peaked in April for large-caps and in June for small-caps. Given Powell’s resolve to significantly reduce the current four-decade-high inflation – no matter what the cost to jobs and the economy – the … Continued
The 1Q earnings season begins in earnest this week, with a host of financials getting the ball rolling. For large-caps, this year’s revision trend is flat to slightly up, but next year’s is decidedly up, which is kind of interesting … Continued
For the second time in five weeks, the S&P 500 charted out a bullish weekly hammer. Sentiment readings are suppressed, although non-commercials are at risk of being too bullish. Near-term, the path of least resistance is up – magnitude and … Continued
VIX flashed a spike reversal last week. If history repeats itself, this probably means downward pressure on volatility, and higher stock prices. This is near term. Medium- to long-term, it will take time to heal the technical damage inflicted this … Continued
The FOMC meets this week. Stocks are adjusting to an increasingly hawkish Fed, which is belatedly alarmed by the persistently rising inflation. At some point, the long end of the treasury yield curve is likely to cry uncle, putting earnings … Continued
Three major US banks drew mixed reaction post-earnings last Friday as the 4Q21 season got underway in earnest. Ahead of this, the S&P 500 is acting a bit weak, but no major support has been breached. If anything, bulls at … Continued
This market wants to rally. Plain and simple. In a seasonally favorable period, Friday’s red-hot CPI report was embraced by equity bulls. The S&P 500 is itching to break out. If Powell on Wednesday sounds more hawkish that currently priced … Continued
With two sessions to go, November is on the verge of flashing a yellow flag on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. These indices of late have diverged with deteriorating consumer sentiment. In a seasonally favorable period, some key … Continued