The S&P 500 posted a new record last Thursday; otherwise a laggard this year and March in particular, the Nasdaq 100 too reclaimed its 50-day. Continued strength in tech should reverberate through the rest of the market, particularly market cap-weighted … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 30, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 89.8k, up 102.1k. Minutes for the March 16-17 FOMC meeting will be out next Wednesday. Not much extra color is expected out of these … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 23, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 12.3k, up 8.2k. The 10-year treasury yield enjoyed several breakouts this year – out of one percent early January, 1.2 percent mid-February and 1.4 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 4.1k, up 50.2k. The FOMC left the benchmark rate between zero and 25 basis points this week. Also left unchanged was the asset buying … Continued
Indices are beginning to diverge. Last week, large- and small-caps posted new highs, but tech struggled to put its act together. This is taking place at a time when sentiment is no longer as effusive as several weeks ago. If … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 9, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 46.1k, down 49.5k. The FOMC meets next week. This is the year’s second meeting. Six more remain – the scheduled ones, that is. A … Continued
After a three-week, 12-percent decline, the Nasdaq 100 staged a hammer reversal last Friday. In the right circumstances, there is room to rally on the daily. This can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy should tech bulls force zealous shorts to … Continued
Fed chair made it clear last week that things have not deteriorated enough for them to act. In this atmosphere, the 10-year rate can head toward two percent. Equities, in all probability, will not like that, even though they are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 95.6k, up 98.4k. Chair Jerome Powell apparently failed to calm bond-market nerves on Thursday – or at least that is how markets’ reaction would … Continued
Two months into the year, January and February have traded similarly – early strength followed by weakness in the dying sessions. Equity bulls’ inability to hold on to gains comes amidst a spike in long rates. Short rates are behaving, … Continued