Bulls put foot down on major US equity indices last week. They have the ball near term. Shorts with medium-term focus can sell weekly puts to raise the short price. The greenback acts strong. The US dollar index (95.98) hit … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 7, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 586.3k, down 3.8k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.86 percent) continues to work on a potentially bearish head-and-shoulders formation. On August 1, it hit 3.02 … Continued
The top five in the Nasdaq 100 are done reporting 2Q. They have had their post-earnings reaction – mostly positive. This is occurring even as the index just got repelled at six-month channel resistance. If bulls do not put their … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 16-29 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB ($58.47) bulls late June defended support at $57-plus. Subsequently, the ETF pushed higher past … Continued
Large- and small-cap divergence continues. Versus the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 is beginning to show signs of fatigue. Large-caps continue to fall behind small-caps. Not to mention tech. The S&P 500 large cap index was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 12, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 336k, down 61.6k. With this week’s 25-basis-point raise, the fed funds rate now stands at 175-200 basis points, up 175 basis points since December … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 1, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 445.7k, down 16.5k. US inflation of late has firmed up. Core PCE – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – jumped 1.88 percent … Continued
For first time in over four years, the 10-year Treasury rate surpasses three percent, only to raise the possibility that this is as high as it is going to go at least in the short term. After several quarters of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 24, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 462.1k, up 90.4k. Now what? The 10-year Treasury rate (2.96) crossed three percent this week – the first time this has happened since January … Continued