While there are some signs of near-term capitulation in equities – further raising odds of continuation of rally post-Wednesday reversal – it is perhaps also time to ruminate over why markets started the year all jittery and restless. From intra-day … Continued
The S&P just published operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for 2017, and it is an eye-catcher. Depending on one’s bias, reaction can range from ‘yee-haw’ to ‘not again’. The consensus expects a whopping $141.11. To put things into … Continued
U.S. stocks have gone 12 straight sessions without even a sliver of a bounce. About time for a reprieve? Between the December 29th intra-day high and January 15th low, the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials each lost 10.8 percent, the … Continued
Last Friday, the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio registered a reading of north of one. This does not occur very often. With this, the 21-day moving average rose to 0.766, not that far away from the September 18th (2015) high of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: With crude oil tanking the way it has, it is worth taking note that oil does correlate with inflation expectations. Already, the 10-year … Continued
U.S stocks are off to a stumbling start in 2016. In the year’s first eight sessions through intra-day lows yesterday, the Dow Industrials lost 7.3 percent, the S&P 500 large cap index 7.5 percent, the Nasdaq composite 9.6 percent, and … Continued
Among several culprits behind the recent sell-off in global stocks, two probably stand out: the yuan and crude oil. Chinese stocks began this week where they left off on Friday, dropping more than five percent on Monday. Last week, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The World Bank, warning of an increase in risks to the global economy, expects growth this year to come in at 2.9 percent, … Continued
What a start? The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start. The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year. Some others like the … Continued
With 2015 now in the annals of history, the message that came out can be described as mixed at best and bearish at worst. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7 percent last year – essentially flat (Chart 1). The Nasdaq … Continued