Record buybacks are acting as a big tailwind, offsetting headwinds coming from foreigners and margin debt. Investor sentiment is suppressed enough it can act as a tailwind. S&P 500 buybacks set a new record in 4Q21. The companies spent $270.1 … Continued
Last week, both VIX and the S&P 500 declined. Ordinarily, the two are negatively correlated. This took place even as the volatility index is finding it difficult to enduringly stay above 32-33. Last week, VIX and the S&P 500 moved … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 8, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 377.7k, up 11.9k. Next Tuesday, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the year’s second; six more remain after this. Ahead of this, fed … Continued
Investor sentiment has taken a hit, but major US equity indices are hanging in there – on a relative basis. This is a medium- to long-term worry for bulls. Near-term, they could be looking for opportunities. Possible catalysts include Thursday’s … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 1, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 365.8k, up 80.7k. Talk about a whiplash! The 10-year treasury yield went from 2.07 percent to 1.68 percent in nine sessions. That is a … Continued
For the second time in five weeks, the S&P 500 charted out a bullish weekly hammer. Sentiment readings are suppressed, although non-commercials are at risk of being too bullish. Near-term, the path of least resistance is up – magnitude and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 22, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 285.1k, up 111k. After back-to-back weekly spinning tops in 10-year treasury rates in the last two weeks, bond bears (on price) defended 1.86 percent … Continued
The S&P 500 is sitting on crucial support, a decisive break of which could send bears into panic, and that could set up a decent opportunity for a counter-trend rally. The S&P 500 is hanging by a thread. Down 2.8 … Continued
Until recently, it looked like the Fed finally had the fortitude to take on inflation head on. Now, the message is getting blurred. Within the FOMC, for every Bullard, there is a Kashkari. Amidst this push-and-pull, late-January lows on major … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 15, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 174.1k, down 27.8k. Inflation has persisted much longer and broadened to more industries than the Fed initially – and stubbornly – expected. Benchmark interest … Continued