CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2016. 10-year note: The 25-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate last December was the first in nine-plus years.  At 0.4 percent, rates are still zero-bound.  Growth remains sluggish, but … Continued

US Equity Indices Flash Signs Of Fatigue Left And Right

That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable.  That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable.  What is debatable … Continued

Amidst Extremely Overbought Conditions, Major Indices At/Near Major Resistance

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

U.S. stocks have come a long way since February 11th. Intra-day, off that low through last Friday’s high, here is how much major U.S. indices have rallied: Dow Industrials, 10.1 percent; S&P 500 large cap index (Chart 1), 11 percent; … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour.  Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP).  This was totally … Continued

IWM Weekly Covered Call — Again

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

It is damage control time for small-cap investors. When on August 14 August 21st weekly 119 puts were hypothetically sold for $0.92, IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 Index, was trading at $119.62.  If the short put got assigned, it was … Continued

Bear call spread, to benefit from potential pressure on XLE near-term

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

XLE ($82.22), the energy ETF, seems to want to go lower near-term. Since the mid-January low of $71.22, it has carved out a pattern of higher lows, and higher highs, hence now finds itself in a slightly upward sloping channel.  … Continued

Stocks at a crossroads, rallies will probably get sold for now

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

With massive inflows just last week, stocks need another to stay afloat With at least three important events on calendar, Jan can throw wrench in the works With stocks holding up amidst signs of preference for risk-off; opportunity to sell … Continued