Stocks have rallied massively since March lows, but bulls are essentially hiding in large-caps, and in just a few names within large-caps. If past is prelude, such over-reliance is not lasting. With 47 companies reporting as of last Thursday, 1Q20 … Continued
If early this year the 10-year T-yield vouched for the strength of the US economy as it broke out of multi-year/decade resistance, what is it trying to tell us now that it seems to have hit the wall and is … Continued
US economic data of late have been coming in strong. Real GDP printed 4.1 percent growth in 2Q18. This was the strongest growth rate in 15 quarters. As of last Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects 4.4 percent growth … Continued
May’s jobs report out last Friday gave us a glimpse into how U.S. job creation has been in gradual deceleration. Now we have the latest JOLTS report that is pointing us toward a possible inflection point. To refresh, a mere … Continued
The chart below (Chart 1) caused a lot of stir last Friday – across asset classes, primarily in the U.S., and elsewhere. The U.S. economy only added 38,000 non-farm jobs in May, much weaker than expected and the lowest monthly … Continued
The Fed’s dual mandate currently is a source of ammo for both hawks and doves within the FOMC. Would it always remain this way? Core PCE inflation has been ticking up a bit of late, but still below the Fed’s … Continued
U.S. household formation seems to be stalling. Again. Last year, there were 117,707 households in December, 117,342 in April, and 117,816 in October. When Great Recession ended, there were 110,284 households in June 2009, and grew steadily, to 114,720 in … Continued
At 223,000 non-farm jobs, the June U.S. employment report was softer than expected. Plus, both April and May were revised lower. These are months in which kids are entering the labor force even as teachers are leaving it. So a … Continued
The U.S. economy continues to churn out mixed messages. The retail sales number on Wednesday was an outright dud. Sales in April were flat month-over-month, against expectations for a 0.2-percent gain. With that, sales are now down to flat in … Continued
Markit forecast of sub-200k private payroll growth this month a surprise U.S. unemployment claims, near historical lows, need catalyst to begin to move up Oil-heavy states are yet to see jobs impact of drop in crude, but only a matter … Continued