Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 740.2k, down 16.1k. Kudos to non-commercials for having doggedly remained bearish on 10-year Treasury notes. They reaped a bumper crop this week. In September … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 14, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 698.2k, up 111.9k. In the 12 months to July, the US Treasury issued $544.1 billion in notes and bonds. A year ago, issuance totaled … Continued
February and March wrought technical damage on major US equity indices, but the path of least resistance increasingly looks up near term. March-quarter earnings season is upon us. This is the first quarter US companies will be reporting after the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 305.2k, down 8.1k. For the first time since mid-December last year, 10-year Treasury yields went under the 50-day moving average this week. On March … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 20, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 313.3k, up 41.9k. Chairing his maiden meeting as Fed chief, Jerome Powell probably could not have asked for more insofar as markets’ reaction was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 327.5k, up 111.9k. The bond market is worried. Yes, beginning last October the Fed has been curtailing its bloated $4.5-trillion balance sheet. Yes, foreigners’ … Continued
U.S. equity bulls stepped up near important support Tuesday. Those lows have now taken on significance. Should there be no violation, the path of least resistance is up – duration and magnitude notwithstanding. In the early months of 2016, stocks … Continued
Risk happens fast. All of a sudden, no one is buying the dip. Rather, the quest for protection has skyrocketed. In mere six sessions, VIX went from 11.08 to 38.80, closing Monday at 37.32. This was the highest since August … Continued