Equity indices have been under pressure in the past month. They have reached important support. Which way it goes from here likely gets decided in the next several sessions. Major US equity indices continue to get beat up, even as … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 21, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 423.4k, up 70.5k. There goes that support. Thursday’s 10-basis-point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.32 percent) sliced right through nine-year support at 2.40 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 352.8k, up 22.3k. Last October, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.39 percent) peaked at 3.25 percent before coming under sustained pressure. It bottomed at 2.36 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 330.6k, up 42.6k. The 10-year Treasury yield (2.46 percent) fell eight basis points this week. Not surprising considering it was a risk-off week in … Continued
Trump trade Tweet-induced selloff in the S&P 500 was bought hand over fist Monday, even as the spike in VIX was sold. Volume was anemic, so there is not much conviction in this – either when the S&P 500 was … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 287.9k, down 35.9k. The FOMC met this week. Markets were hoping that the Fed would deliver a dovish message. It didn’t. As expected, the … Continued
The S&P 500 just notched a fresh high. Volatility is as good as dead. Under this calmness lies early signs of life. Volatility is quiet, even dead. VIX (13.11) continues to loiter around the bottom end of a one-year range … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 323.8k, up 48.1k. After getting rejected at 2.61 percent Wednesday last week, the 10-year Treasury yield (2.51 percent) went after that level again this … Continued
The S&P 500 is within striking distance of a new high, even as margin debt is substantially below last May’s record high. Concurrently, unlike in the past, VIX refuses to sustainably drop to high single digits/low double digits. Margin debt … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k. The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent. … Continued