Stocks took it on the chin last week. Friday, major US equity indices all tested major averages – successfully. A relief is possible near term. Medium term, though, more pain probably lies ahead. Last Wednesday, the day the Fed lowered … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 30, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 383.8k, up 3.7k. In the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting in which the fed funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points but the … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 23, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 380.2k, up 32.9k. Next Wednesday, the Fed will have eased, probably by 25 basis points to a range of 200 to 225 basis points. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 16, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.2k, up 58.4k. In its quest to justify a rate cut later this month, the Fed may be inadvertently creating a precedent that it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 9, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.8k, down 48. In the first stare down with markets since his appointment in February last year, Jerome Powell, Fed chair, blinked. In this … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 2, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 288.9k, up 7.8k. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress this week. This comes on the heels of a strong payroll report in June. … Continued
VIX this week broke two-month support, opening the door to a test of support at 11-12. Meanwhile, the volatility curve – in contango – is approaching a level that in the past coincided with a peak in stocks. With one … Continued
Stocks have rallied big on hopes of even easier monetary policy. In the very near term, bulls carry the momentum ball. Medium- to long-term, a daunting task likely awaits them. The Fed’s toolkit is inadequate. Plus, its stimulative measures may … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 25, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 281.1k, down 121.9k. Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October through the intraday low seven sessions ago of 1.98 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 18, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 403k, up 37k. Yet another intraday low on the 10-year Treasury yield this week! Since peaking at 3.25 percent last October, there has been … Continued