CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 23, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Negative interest rates have suddenly become the topic du jour.  Last month, Japan waded into negative interest rate policy (NIRP).  This was totally … Continued

Negative Interest Rates As Panacea Fresh Wishful Central Bank Thinking?

posted in: Credit, Currency, Economy | 0

Negative interest rates have been in the headlines for a while now.  Since Janet Yellen’s, Fed chair, Congressional testimony last week, it has been doing so with increasing frequency. Does the Fed even have the legal authority to use negative … Continued

Scenario In Which U.S. M2 Money Velocity Continues Lower

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

If a chart gets retweeted 86 times, it is safe to say that the topic in question has touched a nerve in Twitter finance. The chart above had that distinction.  The topic it highlighted thus deserves a post.  So here … Continued

Markets Looking For Hints Yellen Put Alive And Well

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Later today, markets will learn if, when it comes to the so-called Fed put, it is game as usual or winds of change are beginning to blow. The Fed put refers to a practice of reducing interest rates to deal … Continued

Fed Set To Set Precedent

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today.  Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued

Dynamics Between Next Week’s FOMC Decision, Elevated Short Interest, And Options Expiry

posted in: Derivatives, Equities | 0

Next week, the FOMC meets. The two-day meeting, the year’s last and a highly anticipated one, ends Wednesday.  A rate hike is widely expected.  The fed funds rate has been stuck near zero for the past nine years. Markets currently … Continued

Extremely Rare For Fed To Tighten When ISM Manufacturing Is In Contraction Mode

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

It can potentially be a momentous day.  December 16th, that is.  That is when the Fed would be completing its two-day FOMC meeting – this year’s last – and decide whether or not to raise interest rates. The last time … Continued

Case For U.S. Rates Needing To Stay Lower For Longer

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

The energizer bunny marches on.  The U.S. consumer, that is. In the third quarter, the U.S. economy grew an annualized 1.5 percent.  This was the first estimate, so it probably gets revised up or down by the time we have … Continued