Traders – the good ones – must be having a field day. Stocks are swinging wildly. IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, fell 11 percent during August 17-24, then rallied nearly 10 percent by September 17, fell again – nearly … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 6, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Since the September 16-17 FOMC meeting, barring comments from hawks like John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, and Dennis Lockhart, president … Continued
As we approach next year’s presidential elections, the debate surrounding the U.S. corporate tax rate is destined to get louder. One side argues corporations are already taxed at very high rates. The other side says they far from pay their … Continued
What exactly would Fed officials be focused on when they decide to hike – or not – rates? It is a fair question given the amount of variance in their message. On Tuesday evening, John Williams, president of the San … Continued
Despite the rout in stocks that August and September experienced, the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) is alive and well. From low to high, the S&P 500 index rallied eight plus percent between August 24 and September 17, followed by a seven-plus percent … Continued
As the third quarter ended, S&P 500 companies were yielding a touch higher than the 10-year Treasury yield – something equity bulls have been stressing to highlight how cheap stocks are. Is it that simple? Last quarter, the four-quarter rolling … Continued
Third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest this week. Operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have been persistently coming down for 2015 – from as high as $137.52 at the end of the second quarter last year to $110.98 as … Continued
By last Tuesday, non-commercials were net long 22,490 contracts in 10-year note futures, having reversed the bearish bet they had in the prior four weeks (Chart 1). Turns out it was the right thing to do. By Tuesday, TLT, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Hat tip to bond vigilantes! Heading into the FOMC meeting two weeks ago, they never bought into the message coming out of the … Continued
Today is jobs day. At 8:30 later this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the report card for September. A monthly ritual that markets more often than not await with abated breath. Particularly so this time around as the … Continued