If we just focus on Charts 1 and 2 and consider how they have behaved in the past, equity bulls have reason to be optimistic. Because of the equity rout leading up to the August 24th low, both charts reached … Continued
It has been a consistent theme post-Great Recession. U.S. businesses have persistently disappointed when it comes to capital expenditures. It does not look like we will see a trend change anytime soon. The National Federation of Independent Business, representing small … Continued
Later this morning, August’s NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) optimism index is published. July was 95.4, up 1.3 points month-over-month. The index has been under pressure since the recovery high of 100.4 reached last December. The last time it … Continued
Gold continues to act as if it expects a hike as soon as this month. The FOMC meets on the 16th-17th. On Friday, post-August jobs report, GLD, the SPDR Gold ETF, shed 0.3 percent. The two-year Treasury yield was unchanged … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 1, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The IMF is at it again. This week, it reiterated its stance that advanced economies should maintain accommodative monetary policies. By that it … Continued
U.S. exports have been under pressure since they peaked at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.36 trillion in 3Q14; 2Q15 was $2.28 trillion. As a percent of nominal GDP, exports’ share in 2Q15 was a full percentage point lower … Continued
In the past five weeks, all things in the world of bonds have done a lot of running… but on the treadmill. The popular bond ETF, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), is essentially unchanged during that time … Continued
2134.72. That is the all-time record the S&P 500 Index (1948.86) notched on May 20. It is possible in the annals of stock market history this high will be viewed with the same level of trepidation/respect as 1553.11 (March 2000 … Continued
While the debate continues as to whether or not the Fed will hike in its upcoming meeting in two weeks, gold is giving off vibes as if it expects one. Yesterday was a risk-off session as far as equities were … Continued
Since last Wednesday, there has been a sudden pickup in QE talk. That was when Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said that “the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling … Continued