The long end of the Treasury yield curve is doing it again. It refuses to go along with the Fed’s tightening campaign, particularly so Wednesday as policymakers were a slightly more hawkish than previously. Wednesday, the Fed raised the fed … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 5, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 397.5k, down 73.5k. The FOMC meets next week. It is this year’s fourth meeting, and four more remain after this. The fed funds rate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
US small-caps are outperforming. Price action is great. But large-caps are not on the same page. And high-yield corporate bonds have diverged with small-caps for a while now. In early 2016 when US stocks reached a major low, several other … Continued
SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory. Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued
Gold faced pressure after running into resistance six weeks ago. The subsequent drop cost the metal long-term support at $1,300-plus. Gold bugs were not ready to give in that easy, though. They defended a rising trend line from December 2016. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 8, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 408.6k, down 37k. The 10-year Treasury rate (2.97 percent) once again is hammering on three percent. On April 25, yields retreated after rising intraday … Continued
There are some signs US consumers are beginning to save up a little and cut down on credit card debt. If – big IF – sustained, this will have consequences for the economy, not to mention stocks. In general, a … Continued