We are in uncharted territory! On so many levels. As you will see in the charts below, many valuation metrics are stretched. The nation’s debt load just rose to a new high. At 1Q15, the total credit market debt outstanding … Continued
Is the Fed about to make a mistake? Post-FOMC meeting yesterday, the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ suggested a majority of policymakers were leaving the door open for two rate hikes in 2015. After the release of the statement, TLT, the iShares … Continued
Chart 1 looks normal except for one thing. In the current cycle, the green line has not followed the red line higher. U.S. capacity utilization bottomed out at 66.9 percent in June 2009 and moved higher. The Fed funds rate … Continued
TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund, declined 16 percent between the all-time intra-day high of 137.09 on January 30 and the low of 115.26 last Wednesday. It is as if the bond market globally has been awakened from … Continued
U.S. home builder sentiment in June jumps, to match post-bubble high of last September Recent spike in interest rates, if sticks, potentially shot across housing bow ITB acts tentative, but has not given up on crucial 26 support U.S. home … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 9, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, the IMF urged the Fed to delay a rate hike until 2016. This week, the World Bank said the same thing. … Continued
Retail sales up three months in a row, following three straight declines PCE, which includes services, probably better gauge of consumer behavior How consumer spending fares depends on consumers’ willingness to lever up Once every month, U.S. markets await with … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 2, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Yields have decisively broken out of a five-month downtrend channel. The only question is what triggered this. To quote the Beige Book: “The … Continued
U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates? At first glance, that … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 26, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on what the consensus was expecting, U.S. economic data this week were split down the middle, with maybe a … Continued