The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 2, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: There you go! Again. Less than three months after instituting the first rate hike in nine years, Fed officials are behaving as if … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two important developments took place this week in central banking. First, the Fed. This week’s FOMC meeting was a non-event. No interest-rate decision … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The International Monetary Fund lowers – again – its outlook for global economic growth this year. Warning of bumpier rides, especially in the … Continued
Crude oil peaked in June 2014. As months went by and the price decline picked up momentum, there were growing worries as to if this would force major oil exporters to begin to unwind their Treasury holdings. Obviously this would … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: With crude oil tanking the way it has, it is worth taking note that oil does correlate with inflation expectations. Already, the 10-year … Continued
One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been a lack of wage gains. Corporations have become the price setters, and employees the price takers. It is not that U.S. corporates are not making money. Profits adjusted for … Continued
Among several culprits behind the recent sell-off in global stocks, two probably stand out: the yuan and crude oil. Chinese stocks began this week where they left off on Friday, dropping more than five percent on Monday. Last week, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The World Bank, warning of an increase in risks to the global economy, expects growth this year to come in at 2.9 percent, … Continued
What a start? The year 2016 has gotten off to an ominous start. The S&P 500 large cap index is down 4.9 percent in the first four sessions – the worst four-day start to a year. Some others like the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of December 29, 2015. Change is week-over-week. (Due to New Year’s Day last week, the CFTC released numbers on Monday, instead of last Friday.) 10-year note: ‘Will it or wouldn’t it?’ was … Continued