Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 2, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 58.7k, up 21.8k. So far so good from bond bears’ perspective (from price point of view). After having failed just under one percent for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 26, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 36.9k, down 9.7k. Wednesday’s intraday drop to one percent has so far been a successful retest of the breakout three weeks ago, when the … Continued
As the FOMC winds up its two-day meeting today, one cannot help but think of the Fed put that has led investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve, driving one after another metric into uncharted territory. … Continued
Post-earnings stock reaction to the leading US financials has been negative. Ditto with how INTC and IBM were treated. This week and next, the top six companies report. Amidst elevated investor optimism and surging margin debt, reaction to their results … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 19, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 46.6k, up 96.8k. A two-day FOMC meeting begins on Tuesday. This is the first meeting of the year – one of the eight scheduled … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 50.2k, up 77.9k. No sooner than the 10-year treasury yield rallied past one percent than several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 5, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 27.7k, up 2.4k. After losing one percent last March, bond bears (on price) had been unable to reclaim the level. That ended Wednesday when … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 29, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to New Year’s holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 25.2k, down 24.9k. FOMC minutes for the December 15-16 … Continued
Some early signs of fatigue are showing up on the Russell 2000, which has more than doubled since March. Conditions are extended. A week ago yesterday, the small cap index was 34.7 percent above its 200-day. Although this in and … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 22, 2020 (data was made public this Monday instead of last Friday due to Christmas holiday). 10-year note: Currently net long 50.2k, up 22.8k. Once again last week, bond bears (on … Continued