Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 8, 2016. 10-year note: The 25-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate last December was the first in nine-plus years. At 0.4 percent, rates are still zero-bound. Growth remains sluggish, but … Continued
Due to Veterans Day holiday, the CFTC will release the Commitment of Traders report for the week through November 8 on Monday the 14th. Thanks.
Back on October 4, spot gold collapsed 3.3 percent. The one-day decline probably owed more to technicals than to fundamentals. From the December 3rd low of $1,045.4/ounce through the July 6th high of $1,377.5, the metal rallied nearly 32 percent. … Continued
Major U.S. equity indices are at/approaching their respective 200-day moving average, even as they have pushed into oversold territory. At last Friday’s lows, the S&P 500 large cap index came within 0.03 percent of that average, the Russell 2000 small … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 1, 2016. 10-year note: The 10-year yield (cash) has been trapped in a descending channel for the past three decades, having peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981. From the July … Continued
U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in 3Q16, owing primarily to inventory buildup and increase in exports. The two respectively contributed 0.6 percent and 1.2 percent to real GDP growth. Real final sales to domestic … Continued
Last week, the Russell 2000 small cap index dropped 2.5 percent. The decline was much bigger versus what other major U.S. peers were handed out, with the S&P 500 large cap index down 0.7 percent, Nasdaq composite down 1.3 percent … Continued
Last Friday, the first print of 3Q16 GDP was published. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent. Inventory contributed 0.61 percent to this growth, snapping five consecutive quarters of negative contribution. Similarly, exports’ contribution jumped to 1.17 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 25, 2016. 10-year note: Rates are rising. From 1.34 percent on July 6 this year to 1.88 percent on Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield has come a long way. In … Continued
Having rallied seven-plus percent in the past five months, there is a spring in the US dollar index’s step, but it is unlikely to break out of a year-and-a-half range any time soon. The two-year Treasury yield tends to be … Continued