A July 2nd post discussed the possibility that operating earnings for S&P 500 companies might decline this year over 2014. The assessment was based on the relationship between SPX earnings and the BEA’s measure of corporate profits (adjusted for inventory … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued
Markets tend to be either risk-on or risk-off. For the most part, anyway. One of the ways market participants can keep a pulse on risk-taking – or a lack thereof – is by simply looking at which sectors are outperforming. … Continued
Last week when the advance report on U.S. durable goods for June was published, new orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – used as proxy for business capital expenditures – were $68.4 billion, and May was reported as $67.8 billion. … Continued
One look at Chart 1, and it is not hard to imagine the possible repercussions of the collapse in crude oil. The spot West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $107.68 in June last year, dropped to $42.41 in March, rose … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target … Continued
In the second-quarter advance estimate for U.S. GDP released yesterday, one of the things that jumped out was the level of inventories. Private businesses accumulated $124 billion in nominal inventories. In 1Q15, these were $127.3 billion (Chart 1); 1Q15 was … Continued
On Monday, I laid out as to why TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, may be stuck in limbo in the near-term between 50- and 200-day moving averages and why the latter is likely to act as resistance. … Continued
There is a dichotomy between U.S. sales of new and existing homes. This has been preceded by a dichotomy between how their median prices were diverging from each other. June saw existing homes jump to a seasonally adjusted annual rate … Continued
Last week, non-commercials went net long 10-year note futures for the first time since September 2014. For reference, they were net short north of 183,000 contracts as early as early May and 261,000-plus at the end of last December (Chart … Continued