Major US equity indices all peaked late January – the S&P 500 large cap index, the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq 100 index on the 26th and the Russell 2000 small cap index on the 24th. This was followed by … Continued
SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) closed at $273.60 last Friday. It is a decision time as relates to the double calendar spread hypothetically initiated last week. The spread – short June 1 273 call/long June 8 273 call/short June 1 … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 29, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 471.1k, up 112.4k. “When the pendulum swings too far in one direction it will go back,” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg once said. … Continued
US small-caps are outperforming. Price action is great. But large-caps are not on the same page. And high-yield corporate bonds have diverged with small-caps for a while now. In early 2016 when US stocks reached a major low, several other … Continued
SPY has broken out of late-January trend line, but acts lethargic, even as short-term technicals are in overbought territory. Options can help. Since the bull market began in March 2009, time and again shorts have lent a helping hand to … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the May 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Two weeks ago, XLB (59.33) broke out from a late-January falling trend line, but building … Continued
The Nasdaq 100 index/QQQ could be potentially forming the right side of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This week’s action could provide further clues. The US economy is one month short of completing nine years of expansion. The recovery has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
The S&P 500 just broke out of trend-line resistance from late January, and apparently spent tons of energy in doing so. Near-term, the options market is reflecting elevated optimism. Unwinding is likely. US stocks enjoyed a nice rally in the … Continued