Bulls’ resolve being tested
Major U.S. indices reversed from early strength yesterday. As a matter of fact, it took less than an hour – half an hour in most cases – before things began to turn south. From the S&P 500 large cap index … Continued
Peek into future through futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week? The latter meets on 28-29. For the most part, macro data … Continued
Bear call spread, to benefit from potential pressure on XLE near-term
XLE ($82.22), the energy ETF, seems to want to go lower near-term. Since the mid-January low of $71.22, it has carved out a pattern of higher lows, and higher highs, hence now finds itself in a slightly upward sloping channel. … Continued
Peek into future through futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 14, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The 10-year yield fell in all five sessions. Friday could have been different as March core CPI was initially treated as hawkish, but … Continued
FXE range-bound enough next couple of weeks for iron condor?
Since the euro peaked in March last year, it has consistently been a loser’s game to try to pick a bottom. For the umpteenth of time, the currency — and FXE, the euro ETF — has looked like it was … Continued
Spring in financials’ step as they prepare to report 1Q
Despite a down day in stocks in general, financials had a lot of oomph yesterday. KBE continues to hug the upper end of the one-plus-year range it is in (Chart 1), as if the ETF wants to break through resistance. … Continued
Buyback-induced breakouts — signal or noise?
GE stages massive breakout Friday on back of massive buyback announcement S&P 500 companies splurged $565 billion on share repurchases in 2014 As/when buybacks dry up, support zones become more vulnerable Before last week, GE shares had been on a … Continued
Peek into future through futures
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Interesting times, indeed! Mexico this week issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros. This is not the first time that nation has tapped … Continued
Range-bound SMH seems ripe for neutral option strategy
SMH, the semiconductor ETF, has been range-bound since last September. Looking at a weekly chart (the one below is daily), the path of least resistance seems down in the medium-term. Bears had a great opportunity seven sessions ago to push … Continued
Can U.S. dollar become victim of its own success?
Dollar has benefited from growth/interest rate differential among countries Recent spurt of weak U.S. data has pushed back rate-hike expectations to late 15 Dollar index retreats after approaching crucial Fib retracement; other levels to watch In 2014, the U.S. economy … Continued