Once again, 10-year Treasury yields failed at the top end of a long-term channel, although can push higher near term, creating a trading opportunity in TLT. Close, but no cigar! The 10-year rate came very close to breaking out of … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 13, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 271.4k, down 90.8k. Once again, 10-year Treasury yields are retreating from important resistance. Caught in a three-decade-old descending channel, the 10-year rate came very … Continued
U.S. corporate debt issuance continued to decelerate in February. High-yield spreads are not pointing to stress in the system. After January’s $133.7 billion, February issuance slowed down to $84.3 billion. As a result, the first two-month total, comprised of $184 … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 16-28 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) Post-February 9 low/reversal, XLB (61.32) rallied to test the 50-day moving average, but was rejected. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 6, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 362.2k, up 19.3k. On February 2, January’s private-sector average hourly earnings were reported, and they rose 2.89 percent year-over-year, to $26.74. This was the … Continued
There was non-confirmation between the spike in VIX a month ago and U.S. high-yield spreads. Depending on which one is sending the right signal will have consequences for whether or not 15-16 support on VIX holds. On February 6, spot … Continued
As talk of potential trade war heats up, attention has shifted to U.S. small-caps. Deserved or too simplistic? Early last week, the Russell 2000 small cap index tried to take out not one but two levels of resistance – the … Continued
Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda! What could have been $9.93 in profit in a hypothetical XLE trade is now only worth $1.83. Culprit? Trying to play it too cute plus greed. Since peaking on January 25 at $66.66/barrel, spot West Texas Intermediate … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 27, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 342.9k, up 128.4k. On February 5 when Jerome Powell took over as Fed chair the S&P 500 large cap index dropped 4.1 percent, and … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the February 1-15 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) During the reporting period, XLB (60.71) went from 62.95 at January-end to an intraday low … Continued