CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week!  Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 1, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The IMF is at it again.  This week, it reiterated its stance that advanced economies should maintain accommodative monetary policies.  By that it … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 25, 2015.  Change is week-over-week.  (Please keep in mind that these holdings are as of Tuesday.  By then, from high to low the S&P 500 was down 12.5 percent.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials contained in the Commitment of Traders report as of August 18, 2015.  Change is week-over-week.  (Please note that these holdings are as of Tuesday.  The S&P 500 swooned six percent in the next … Continued

Markets Doing Fed’s Work — Real Interest Rates Are Tighter

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

Market participants have no clue how to read Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.  The latter failed to settle the debate as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will move in September.  Treasury bonds are acting as if the message was dovish … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 11, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: How might the renminbi devaluation impact the Fed’s desire to hike rates this year?  The devaluation is at least disinflationary as far U.S. … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 4, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC on Wednesday that he has not made up his mind yet on whether interest rates should … Continued

COT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 28, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The following from the FOMC statement drew a lot of attention: “The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target … Continued

TLT Caught In Limbo Between 50- And 200-Day Averages

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Technicals | 0

Last week, non-commercials went net long 10-year note futures for the first time since September 2014.  For reference, they were net short north of 183,000 contracts as early as early May and 261,000-plus at the end of last December (Chart … Continued

Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 21, 2015.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Is global growth slowing?  The ongoing slump in commodities seems to suggest that.  In this scenario, it would make sense for investors to … Continued