U.S. capex continues to let down. May’s revised figures for new orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capital expenditures – were published on Tuesday, and there was not much change in the trend. Orders fell 0.5 … Continued
As far as U.S. stocks were concerned, Brexit was just a bad dream. A footnote, so to speak. On the S&P 500 large cap index, the intra-day high of 2113.32 in the session before Brexit hit stands, but last Friday’s … Continued
Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent. It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session. The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued
The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued
The correlation between financials and the two-year Treasury yield is tight. The latter tends to be sensitive to Fed action. In recent months in particular, the two-year has been on a roller-coaster ride trying to keep up with FOMC members’ … Continued
In the aggregate, tech earnings have been a disappointment in the current earnings season. With the exception of FB (Facebook), from Apple (AAPL) to Alphabet (GOOGL) to IBM (IBM) to Netflix (NFLX), 1Q16 results have left a bad taste in … Continued
Is the S&P 500 index (2035.94) resting or struggling at resistance? Either way, the rather lethargic action the past few sessions is not completely out of the ordinary given the move it has had off February 11th lows. From low … Continued
U.S. corporate capital expenditures have been lackluster. That is an understatement. As a percent of real GDP in 3Q15, non-residential fixed investment comprised 12.8 percent. The post-Great Recession high of 12.9 percent was recorded in each of the three quarters … Continued
The long-awaited liftoff is here. On Wednesday, the target range for the fed funds rate was raised to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent – from the previous range of zero to 0.25 percent. This is the first hike since 2006; … Continued
The year’s last FOMC meeting begins today. Tomorrow, we will probably witness the first rate hike in nine years. On June 29, 2006, the fed funds rate was pushed up by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent, and stayed there … Continued