Chart 1 looks normal except for one thing. In the current cycle, the green line has not followed the red line higher. U.S. capacity utilization bottomed out at 66.9 percent in June 2009 and moved higher. The Fed funds rate … Continued
U.S. consumer spending, accounting for >2/3rds of economy, key to growth Over last eight years, bank deposits have grown 80 percent But interest income suppressed due to ZIRP Do consumers always benefit from low interest rates? At first glance, that … Continued
2nd straight M/M rise in orders for U.S. business capX proxy in April For several months beginning June, hurdle rate quite high for Y/Y growth Six years into expansion, ZIRP probably not confidence booster among CEOs Phew! A sigh of … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued
A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals. While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Interesting times, indeed! Mexico this week issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros. This is not the first time that nation has tapped … Continued
Subdued corporate capX now will adversely impact productivity later First time in 6 years, U.S. non-financials corporate capX exceeds internal funds Given new energy dynamics and impact on capX, too early to back-slap and high-five? U.S. corporations have not been … Continued
Fed gets rid of “patient”, but hints it will be patient in hiking rates Surging dollar impacts exports; Fed takes 2015 GDP forecast down a notch With economic data increasingly coming in weak, rate-hike odds this year next to nil … Continued
Setback in orders for business-capex proxy; down four consecutive months Inventory-to-order ratios, nowhere near previous peaks, trending higher Zero-bound suppressed rates probably impacting incentive to borrow The much-anticipated capex boom in the U.S. will just have to wait a while … Continued
Market expectations for rate hike next year runs risk of disappointment With monetary quiver nearly empty, Fed very much focused on wealth effect Job even more difficult, given adverse effects of cheap money beginning to loom Markets are sending mixed … Continued