The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 12, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: If we just focus on weekly closing prices, the 10-year yield had a lackluster week – essentially flat. Nothing could be further from … Continued
U.S. oil-and-extraction jobs continued to drip lower, down 7.1k from the October 2014 high of 201.5k (down 3.5 percent by April). The curve is much steeper in support jobs, having lost 21.1k jobs from the September 2014 peak of 337.6k … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued
A stronger U.S. dollar finally caused some disturbance with U.S. corporations, especially multinationals. While reporting March-quarter earnings, one after another singled out the dollar for causing top-line shortfall. From trough to peak between last May and March this year, the … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 28, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The week was a head-scratcher from the standpoint of bond vigilantes’ reaction. The 10-year yield rallied hard on a very weak 1Q15 GDP … Continued
For only 4th time in six-plus decades, U.S. GDP price deflator goes negative Macro data weaker than expected this week, but rates come under upward pressure Dollar plays crucial role in inflation outlook, breaks support, could be headed toward 92 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 21, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are bond vigilantes expecting a hawkish tone from the FOMC next week? The latter meets on 28-29. For the most part, macro data … Continued
Government’s various measures of inflation continue to elude Fed’s 2% target U.S. banks’ excess reserves have followed QE higher, and are sitting idle By paying interest on reserves, Fed encourages banks to sit on them The Federal Reserve wants inflation. … Continued
Central banks’ increasing role in deciding fate of stocks R between S&P and Shanghai index breaks down due to CB activism N/T direction for U.S. stocks look promising but not M/T, as QE morphine is lacking Did U.S. stocks go … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 7, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Interesting times, indeed! Mexico this week issued a 100-year bond denominated in euros. This is not the first time that nation has tapped … Continued