Both Monday and last Friday, VIX failed to keep most of its gains. Amidst this, there is strong support at 11-12, and a 10- and 20-day crossover seems imminent. Concurrently, the S&P 500 formed back-to-back hanging man, which is bearish … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024. 10-year note: Currently net short 347.8k, down 133.8k. The 10-year had an important test this week. Thursday’s intraday low of 4.32 percent was a successful test of horizontal support … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 6, 2022. 10-year note: Currently net short 369.2k, up 72.4k. The FOMC meets next week. The day the two-day meeting begins, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report November’s consumer price … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 22, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 358.6k, down 23.3k. Ten-year Treasury yields (2.93 percent) bottomed intraday at 2.72 percent on April 2, then quickly rose to 3.12 percent on May … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 15, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 381.9k, down 26.7k. The Trump administration demands that China cut its trade gap with the US by $200 billion. Last year, China ran a … Continued
The U.S. sovereign bond market has hit the headlines a lot these days. Rates have rallied big since September 2017 lows, but from suppressed levels, and are at crucial stage technically. At least near term, fundamentals do not allow for … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent. Are they sending … Continued
There is divergence in the markets. Tons of it. Large-caps are going one way and small-caps the other. Ditto with transports and high-yield. The Russell 2000 small cap index peaked on 1514.94 on October 5, before trending lower in a … Continued