Russell 2000 Perking Up – Lasting Or Not Likely Gets Decided By Non-Commercials

Small-caps have sprung back to life in recent sessions. Since peaking at 1514.94 on October 5 through the intraday low of 1454.17 last Wednesday, the Russell 2000 small cap index (1503.40) shed four percent.  It was a slow drip-drip move … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 14, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 74.8k, up 24.8k. The dichotomy continues. At 1.73 percent, two-year T-yields, which reflect markets’ expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, are the highest since … Continued

Hated Bull Market? Some Truth To That, But In Aggregate Has Been Fully Embraced

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever.  There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 24, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 153.6k, up 47.3k. FOMC meets next week.  The October 31-November 1 meeting is the seventh this year, with the eighth, and final, scheduled for … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 10, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 192.6k, down 39.6k. Market participants constantly rerate expectations.  They have to.  The related variables are dynamic and constantly changing themselves. The nimble ones are … Continued

R2K Faces 161.8% Fib-Extension Resistance – Repercussions For Non-Commercials Plus IWM/IJR Longs

posted in: Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Helped along by massive short squeeze and healthy flows into ETFs, small-caps have broken out to 161.8-percent Fibonacci-extension resistance. Most recently, the Russell 2000 small cap index bottomed on August 18, and has gone on to rally 12-plus-percent since.  In … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 232.2k, down 24.5k. December looks like a lock.  The odds in the futures market of a 25-basis-point hike in the 12-13th meeting that month … Continued