Sideways For Weeks, Crude Oil Ceases To Respond To +ve News

Over the weekend came news that OPEC and non-OPEC producers had taken 1.5 million barrels per day out of the market.  They had earlier agreed to output cut of 1.8 mb/d in the first six months this year. OPEC first … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued

OPEC Wants Higher Price But Not High Enough To Aid U.S. Shale

Over the weekend, non-OPEC producers agreed to cut crude output by 558,000 barrels per day, of which Russia would reduce by 300,000 b/d.  This followed OPEC’s November 30 decision to cut output by 1.2 million b/d. The deal goes into … Continued

In Need To Digest Post-Election Optimism, S&P 500 Faces Dual Resistance

Since the U.S. presidential election through the intra-day high last Thursday, 10-year T-yields jumped 63 basis points, and two-year yields 27 basis points.  From the July 6 all-time low of 1.34 percent, 10-year yields surged 115 basis points. Riding on … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 22, 2016. 10-year note: Like that, 10-year Treasury yields rallied north of 100 basis points in four and a half months – from the all-time low 1.34 percent on July 6 … Continued

Near Term, Potential Crude Headwind Set To Lock Horns With Earnings Tailwind

Building on the crude theme a week ago, spot West Texas Intermediate crude did indeed break out of a declining trend line drawn from May 2015 (Chart 1).  It rallied 3.3 percent for the week.  For the last eight sessions, … Continued

As Goes Crude Oil, So Go Stocks Near Term

posted in: Commodities, Equities, Technicals | 0

Crude oil sits at a critical juncture.  Depending on which way it breaks probably decides stocks’ path of least resistance near term. Last week, OPEC announced its commitment to cutting output to between 32.5 million barrels per day and 33 … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 24, 2016.  Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Was that a yay or nay from Janet Yellen, Fed chair? In an interview at Harvard University on Friday, she said that an … Continued

Repercussions If WTI Is Able To Build On Monday’s Huge Intra-Day Reversal

Quite an anti-climax!  Sunday’s Doha oil talks, that is.  Even more so is how markets reacted on Monday. The much-hyped and much-hoped-for agreement for an output freeze/cut failed to materialize.  Crude oil had rallied strongly into these talks, so a … Continued

U.S. Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance ↓ – At Least Near Term

Arguably, if U.S. stocks followed crude oil or economic data, they probably would be a lot lower. Operating earnings of S&P 500 companies peaked at $29.60 in 3Q14, and have been decelerating since.  With 474 companies having reported 4Q15 (as … Continued