CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 21, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 100.4k, down 94k. In a Tuesday speech this week, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, said this: “If economic conditions evolve as I … Continued

Amidst Signs Of Rally Fatigue, Dollar Gets Jawboned

There is a new entrant in the list of things dollar bulls are having to grapple with.  It is the Donald. Bulls were already locking horns with overbought technicals and non-commercial futures traders who persistently refused to jump on the … Continued

December Payroll Report Ignites Hopes Of Wage Acceleration – How Justified?

posted in: Economy | 0

The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent.  December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued

Fed May Have Missed Opportunity – Again!

posted in: Credit, Economy | 0

In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance.  It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1).  The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued

Between Buybacks And Dividends, Latter Rewards Shareholders Better

posted in: Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

One of the hallmarks of post-Great Recession recovery has been subdued capital expenditures.  In 2Q16, real non-residential fixed investment was $2.19 trillion (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) – essentially flat since 3Q14.  Investment peaked at $2.22 trillion in 3Q15. … Continued

Stocks’ Path Of Least Resistance Up Near Term, Not So Medium Term

As of last Friday, only 32.6 percent of S&P 500 stocks were above 50-day moving average, earlier having dropped to 29.8 percent on Wednesday.  This compares to 22 percent on June 27 (orange arrow in Chart 1) when the S&P … Continued

Markets Dance To Fed’s Tune Way Too Much … Matter Of Time Before This Backfires

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Markets are under the influence of the Fed’s rate hike talk – or a lack of it – a little too much … to such an extent that it can potentially backfire someday. Last Thursday, we learned that the ISM … Continued

Who Is Making Up For Lack Of Foreign Buying In Both U.S. Equities And Treasurys?

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Have foreigners ceased to be a factor in the market for both U.S. equities and treasury securities? Makes you wonder looking at the Treasury International Capital System data. May’s numbers were released this Monday, and there was not much change … Continued

4-Session, 5-Percent Rally On S&P 500 Bodes Well, Will History Repeat Itself?

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

As far as U.S. stocks were concerned, Brexit was just a bad dream.  A footnote, so to speak.  On the S&P 500 large cap index, the intra-day high of 2113.32 in the session before Brexit hit stands, but last Friday’s … Continued