Russell 2000 Perking Up – Lasting Or Not Likely Gets Decided By Non-Commercials

Small-caps have sprung back to life in recent sessions. Since peaking at 1514.94 on October 5 through the intraday low of 1454.17 last Wednesday, the Russell 2000 small cap index (1503.40) shed four percent.  It was a slow drip-drip move … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Nov 7, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 50.1k, up 47.3k. It was yet another instance of 10-year Treasury yields wilting well before even getting close to 2.6 percent.  Are they sending … Continued

Hated Bull Market? Some Truth To That, But In Aggregate Has Been Fully Embraced

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever.  There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued

Long And Short Of Short Interest

posted in: Equities, Technicals | 0

XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued

Ten-Year T-Yields Back Up, But Still Under Crucial 2.62%

posted in: Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued

Tax-Cut Hopes Propelling Small-Caps — To Face Reality Test Ahead

Post-presidential election last November, U.S. small-caps sprung to life, going nearly parabolic in two separate spurts.  President Trump’s promises to cut taxes, prune regulations and increase infrastructure spending helped improve investor sentiment.  Small-caps inherently are domestically focused. The first rally … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 10, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 192.6k, down 39.6k. Market participants constantly rerate expectations.  They have to.  The related variables are dynamic and constantly changing themselves. The nimble ones are … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures – How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 256.6k, down 13.5k. The Treasury yield curve widened this week.  The spread between 10- and two-year notes went from 78 basis points on Monday … Continued