U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued
Post-presidential election last November, U.S. small-caps sprung to life, going nearly parabolic in two separate spurts. President Trump’s promises to cut taxes, prune regulations and increase infrastructure spending helped improve investor sentiment. Small-caps inherently are domestically focused. The first rally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 10, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 192.6k, down 39.6k. Market participants constantly rerate expectations. They have to. The related variables are dynamic and constantly changing themselves. The nimble ones are … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the September 16-29 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) The last time XLB (57.93) had a down month was October last year. Month-to-date, it … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 256.6k, down 13.5k. The Treasury yield curve widened this week. The spread between 10- and two-year notes went from 78 basis points on Monday … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the September 1-15 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq Since reaching an all-time high of 6477.77 in a spinning … Continued
After rallying 13-plus percent in a couple of months, gold has come under pressure the past couple of weeks. Non-commercials may end up deciding what happens next. Once again, the yellow metal sits at a crucial juncture. On July 10, … Continued
Small-caps have come alive in the past month, with the caveat that the Russell 2000 small cap index is still 1.4 percent from its all-time high of July. The bulls’ best hope near term: squeeze non-commercials. Post-U.S. presidential election last … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the August 16-31 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq After three weeks of lingering, the composite (6454.28) pushed past … Continued
With XLF (SPDR financial ETF) short interest near a multi-month low and the Treasury yield curve continuing to come under pressure, U.S. financials are acting weak, even breaking down. Back in March this year, XLF unsuccessfully tested the prior high … Continued