Equity bulls often assert that this is the most hated bull market ever. There is some – with emphasis on ‘some’ – truth to that, particularly if we focus on short interest. U.S. stocks reached an important bottom in January/February … Continued
XLB (SPDR materials ETF) XLB (58.96) is up 3.8 percent month-to-date, and is on pace to rally 12 straight months, with short squeeze helping. In this context, Monday’s reversal candle just outside the daily upper Bollinger band may or may … Continued
U.S. Treasury yields have come under upward pressure for nearly a month and a half, although the increase has not been uniform across the curve. The yield curve (spread between the two- and 10-year) last Friday was only 79 basis … Continued
Amidst persistent volatility suppression, rays of hope are emerging for volatility bulls. From their perspective, spot VIX is showing some encouraging action. VIX remains oversold on nearly all timeframe. It has remained that way for a while. In less than … Continued
Post-presidential election last November, U.S. small-caps sprung to life, going nearly parabolic in two separate spurts. President Trump’s promises to cut taxes, prune regulations and increase infrastructure spending helped improve investor sentiment. Small-caps inherently are domestically focused. The first rally … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Oct 10, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 192.6k, down 39.6k. Market participants constantly rerate expectations. They have to. The related variables are dynamic and constantly changing themselves. The nimble ones are … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the September 16-29 period in nine S&P 500 sectors. XLB (SPDR materials ETF) The last time XLB (57.93) had a down month was October last year. Month-to-date, it … Continued
Helped along by massive short squeeze and healthy flows into ETFs, small-caps have broken out to 161.8-percent Fibonacci-extension resistance. Most recently, the Russell 2000 small cap index bottomed on August 18, and has gone on to rally 12-plus-percent since. In … Continued
There is a new-found spring in U.S. small-caps’ step. What changed all of a sudden? More importantly, are there ingredients in place for the rally to sustain itself? The Russell 2000 small cap index just broke out. It has been … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Sep 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 256.6k, down 13.5k. The Treasury yield curve widened this week. The spread between 10- and two-year notes went from 78 basis points on Monday … Continued