Fed Succeeds In Driving Investors To Take On Risk And Go Up Risk Curve, But End Game Is Bound To Be Painful Regardless

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities, Technicals | 0

Last March, the Fed essentially urged investors to take on risk and go up the risk curve. They have obliged. Leverage is high in the system. This works as long as the prevailing upward momentum is in place. When a … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 16, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 103.4k, up 23.9k. The 10-year treasury yield had a mini breakout this week at 1.2 percent. This was preceded by a breakout six weeks … Continued

VIX Craters Last Week, Landing On Low-20s Support, Breach Of Which Can Bring More Good News For Equity Bulls

Reversing the prior week’s weakness, major US equity indices put up strong performance last week. The S&P 500, for instance, defended a rising trend line from last March. VIX collapsed, landing on low-20s, a breach of which opens the door … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 26, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net long 36.9k, down 9.7k. Wednesday’s intraday drop to one percent has so far been a successful retest of the breakout three weeks ago, when the … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 12, 2021. 10-year note: Currently net short 50.2k, up 77.9k. No sooner than the 10-year treasury yield rallied past one percent than several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, … Continued

CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 21, 2020. 10-year note: Currently net long 29k, down 29.1k. Tuesday, the FOMC begins a two-day meeting.  This will be the fifth of eight scheduled meetings this year.  There were two … Continued

Overbought Can Stay Overbought Longer Than Expected; In The End, Law Of Gravity Will Prevail

Stocks are ripping higher.  Sentiment is exuberant.  Several technical indicators are extended.  The Fed’s aggressive action was a catalyst in March when major US equity indices bottomed.  Its asset holdings continue to grow, but the pace of growth has decelerated.  … Continued