The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting today, the significance of which cannot be stressed enough. A lot is riding on this. After this meeting, there will be two more left this year – one late October and … Continued
One of the hallmarks of the current U.S. recovery has been conflicting signals coming out of the job market. The unemployment rate is low – nearly cut in half from 10 percent in October 2009 to 5.1 percent in August. … Continued
Since last Wednesday, there has been a sudden pickup in QE talk. That was when Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said that “the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling … Continued
It has been a long wait… yet it keeps eluding. Six years into the current expansion, U.S. wages are yet to pick up speed. Yes, companies ranging from Wal-Mart (WMT) to Aetna (AET) to Starbucks (SBUX) to Target (TGT) have … Continued
The saga continues. When the current U.S. recovery began in the middle of 2009, the ‘not in labor force’ category stood at 81.4 million, and it kept rising. In June, it expanded by 640,000 to 93.6 million. Interestingly, the June … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 19, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The April FOMC minutes for all intents and purposes put a nail in the coffin of June rate-hike odds. At the March meeting, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of May 5, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: It was a weird week. That is an understatement. Up until Wednesday, 10-year yields were up 20 basis points. Treasurys on the long … Continued
U.S. wages stuck in mud, more so for supervised employees than for supervisory ECI for private sector has been trending higher since 1Q14; sustainable? Productivity crucial for employers’ ability to absorb wage hikes If there is one consistency in the … Continued
Recent WMT announcement notwithstanding, wage stagnation has been a trend 4Q14 U.S. non-farm output per hour goes negative – first drop since 3Q11 Businesses can pay productive workforce higher wages and still win Later this morning, we get February’s U.S. … Continued
Post-November jobs report this morning, we are seeing some weird reaction in the bond market. Two-year yields have gone up more vs. the 10-year. As a result, the curve is flatter. In fact, as shown in the chart, the curve … Continued