That the green line in Chart 1 is increasingly taking the form of a coiled spring is non-debatable. That the longer it stays compressed in oversold territory, the higher the odds of a spike higher is non-debatable. What is debatable … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 16, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One more prominent central banker this week seemed to throw his hands up in the air. John Williams, San Francisco Fed president, in … Continued
Through June, foreigners continued to bail out of U.S. stocks. They sold $6.8 billion worth. This was the fifth consecutive month of net selling, during which cumulatively they reduced holdings by $45.5 billion. On a 12-month rolling total basis, April … Continued
Following up on Tuesday’s blog, here is some additional food of thought on XLY, the SPDR consumer discretionary ETF. Three sessions ago, it arguably broke out of a five-week congestion; the ETF rose to a new intra-day high of $82.38, … Continued
The two major U.S. presidential candidates share at least one common interest. Both talk about the need to increase infrastructure spending. Democrat Hillary Clinton has a five-year $275-billion program. Republican Donald Trump says he would spend at least twice as … Continued
XLY, the SPDR consumer discretionary ETF, acts well. It just broke out to a new high, as did its top three holdings – Amazon (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), and Comcast Corporation (CMCSA). These three make up 12.7 percent, 7.3 percent … Continued
To say that stocks have diverged from a whole host of things ranging from earnings to Treasury bonds to crude oil to economic data is an understatement. This is not some new phenomenon … has been going on for a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of August 9, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Are we beginning to see a chink in central bankers’ armor? Major central banks responded to the financial crisis by aggressively deploying both … Continued
The 2Q16 earnings season is winding down. As of August 3rd, 430 of S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 297 beating (69.1 percent) on operating earnings, 40 meeting and 93 missing. (By now, 453 have reported, so the above … Continued
Back in 2013, by August 20th, non-commercials had built 116,317 contracts in net shorts in VIX futures. In the next 10 weeks (by October 29th), net shorts dropped to 39,673 (Chart 1). Intra-day, spot VIX jumped from 11.83 on August … Continued