Post-Brexit two-session sell-off in stocks was a clear risk-off. The S&P 500 large cap index dropped 5.3 percent in those two sessions. The subsequent four-session, 5.1-percent surge through last Friday was risk-on. Risk-off quickly followed by risk-on! The average investor … Continued
As far as U.S. stocks were concerned, Brexit was just a bad dream. A footnote, so to speak. On the S&P 500 large cap index, the intra-day high of 2113.32 in the session before Brexit hit stands, but last Friday’s … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
Equity bulls put the foot down where they could possibly have. Support at 1990 on the S&P 500 large cap index was defended on Monday (Chart 1). This followed a post-Brexit 5.3-percent dive in just a couple of sessions. Using … Continued
Last Friday, post-Brexit win, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 16 basis points to end the session at 1.58 percent. It fell as low as 1.53 percent at one point during the session. The drop ensured 10-year yields remained below support … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 21, 2016. Change is week-over-week. (Please note holdings are prior to non-commercials’ potential Friday reaction post-Brexit win.) 10-year note: There goes any sliver of hope for a rate hike in … Continued
Corporate bond issuance in May surged 74.5 percent month-over-month and 15.6 percent year-over-year to $205.8 billion. Of this, investment-grade was $177.1 billion and high-yield $28.7 billion. IG jumped 105.6 percent m/m and 21.8 percent y/y, while HY was down 9.8 … Continued
Many times in the past spot VIX spikes, but cannot hang on to the gains and reverses quickly. Chart 1 only goes back eight months, but this phenomenon goes back a lot longer. VIX just experienced one such spike reversal. … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 14, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: In Godfather III, Michael Corleone famously says: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Given the circumstances, this … Continued
The Fed is in a tight spot. Yesterday, on the day it told us it continues to have a slight tightening bias it published capacity utilization and industrial production for May. Utilization dropped 0.4 percent month-over-month to 74.9 percent, a … Continued