A peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 20 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. Dollar index, gold and euro jump out the most. 10-year note: It seems non-commercials’ patience is wearing thin.  On top of that, this has not … Continued

Collapse in crude yet to adversely impact petrodollars’ demand for Treasurys

posted in: Commodities, Credit, Economy, Technicals | 0

As world’s largest debtor and one running deficit, U.S. needs constant demand for Treasurys Recycling of petrodollars has been reliable source of demand for U.S. federal debt So far, drop in price of crude has not adversely impacted this demand … Continued

Poor results from major U.S. banks prove XLF divergence from 10-2 spread misplaced

posted in: Credit, Equities, Technicals | 0

Major U.S. banks’ 4Q14 earnings results big disappointment Release of reserves built up during crisis years have been big tailwind Financials’ path of least resistance down medium-term, though oversold near-term Investors were genuinely disappointed last week as all four major … Continued

A peek into future through futures

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 13 (Tuesday).  Change is week-over-week. Dollar index and E-mini S&P 500 are noticeable. 10-year note: Did non-commercials get squeezed a little this week?  By Tuesday, the 10-year yield had dropped … Continued

Momentum is breaking down, bulls better step up to the plate

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Equities, Technicals | 0

Rather quick deterioration in momentum in U.S. stocks From sentiment to Greece to $, worrywarts have plenty of things to worry about Next couple of days will be crucial for bulls to step in and try not to let things … Continued

Persistently rising SPX vs decelerating contribution from sources of capital

posted in: Credit, Equities | 3

NYSE margin debt only increased $3.3bn in November.  The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent in the month.  Except for brief ups and downs toward the middle of 2014, margin debt has essentially gone sideways for the first 11 months last … Continued

Financials diverge from 10-2 spread, could offer shorting opportunity next month

posted in: Credit, Economy, Equities | 0

Despite escape-velocity meme, yield curve continues to tighten Message of belly/long end of curve to short-end: be careful what you ask for Financials diverge from 10-2 spread, perhaps setting up as shorting opportunity next month One of the contrarian themes … Continued

Even as 10-year attracts bids, non-commercials’ net shorts at four-year high

posted in: Credit, Derivatives, Economy | 0

10-year notes yielding lower vs when Nov’s blockbuster jobs report came out Large speculators’ net shorts in 10-year-note futures at four-plus-year high Bond vigilantes not buying hopes and prayers of escape-velocity backers Treasury bonds continue to catch a bid.  A … Continued