With five sessions to go in April, the Nasdaq 100 index (4474.19) is down 0.2 percent, while the Russell 2000 small cap index (1146.69) is up 2.9 percent. Last week made a big difference, as the former was down 1.5 … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 19, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: That this is even being discussed in the press and among economists is a sign of how insane things have gotten in central … Continued
Depending on what data point we are looking at, U.S. inventory ranges from inflated to balanced. In the third and fourth quarters last year, inventory reduction took away 0.71 percent and 0.22 percent from real GDP growth, respectively (Chart 1). … Continued
ITB, the iShares Dow Jones U.S. home construction ETF, has rallied strong the past couple of months. From the February 11th low through the intra-day high yesterday, it jumped north of 30 percent, rallying past its 50- and 200-day moving … Continued
Quite an anti-climax! Sunday’s Doha oil talks, that is. Even more so is how markets reacted on Monday. The much-hyped and much-hoped-for agreement for an output freeze/cut failed to materialize. Crude oil had rallied strongly into these talks, so a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Glass half full or half empty? Yet again, the IMF issued a downward revision to its prediction for global GDP growth, cutting 2016 … Continued
U.S. stocks look vulnerable here. The only question is that of duration and magnitude. Here is why. Off the February 11th intra-day low through the April 1st high, the S&P 500 large cap index rallied nearly 15 percent (Chart 1). … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of April 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: The FOMC minutes for the March 15-16 meeting were released this week, and there was nothing substantially new. That said, maybe because FOMC … Continued
The Fed’s dual mandate currently is a source of ammo for both hawks and doves within the FOMC. Would it always remain this way? Core PCE inflation has been ticking up a bit of late, but still below the Fed’s … Continued
Spot gold is at a critical juncture. Since the metal troughed on December 3rd last year through the March 11th high, it rallied 23 percent. Even before that high, gold had been in a sideways pattern since it spiked 4.1 … Continued