The last time average hourly earnings of U.S. private-sector employees grew with a three handle was April 2009 … means in the current recovery wages are yet to print growth of three percent. December came close, with a year-over-year increase … Continued
The S&P 500 large cap index trades at 21.3 times operating earnings or 17.4 times or 15.5 times. Take your pick. The first one uses trailing 12-month earnings, and the latter two forward. In Chart 1, the red bars are … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 3, 2017. 10-year note: Tuesday brought December’s ISM manufacturing index, which rose 1.5 points month-over-month to a two-year high 54.7; orders jumped 6.8 points m/m to a 25-month high. Ten-year yields … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 27, 2016. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has had a nasty drop since it reached a historic high of $141.91 on July 8 this year. Two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 20, 2016. 10-year note: Ten-year Treasury yields peaked at 15.8 percent in September 1981, then dropping to 1.39 percent by July 2012. In July this year, those lows were slightly undercut; the … Continued
U.S. sales of existing homes increased 0.7 percent month-over-month in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million units. This was the highest since 5.79 million in February 2007 (Chart 1). Sales had been flat for over a … Continued
Notice the plateauing to slightly rising red line in Chart 1? In the middle of January this year, 2017 operating earnings estimates of S&P 500 companies were started out at $141.11. At the time, 2016 estimates were just north of … Continued
Back in the week ended July 5 this year, non-commercials enthusiastically held 315,963 net longs in gold futures. That was an all-time high. These traders had been aggressively building positions since the week ended December 1 last year, when net … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 13, 2016. 10-year note: With the Fed this week having raised by 25 basis points the fed funds target rate to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent, its conventional … Continued
In late 2014/early 2015, U.S. economic data began to either stall or decelerate. Take capacity utilization, for instance. It peaked at 78.9 percent in November 2014, peaking before tagging 80 percent (Chart 1). The Fed funds rate was still near … Continued