The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 9, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On June 5, 2014, the ECB cut the deposit rate for the euro zone’s commercial banks to minus 0.1 percent from zero. It … Continued
Both student and motor-vehicle loans made a fresh new high in 4Q15. That is no news. Both these loans have been trending higher in the current cycle. When Great Recession ended, student loans were $710.9 billion. At the end of … Continued
U.S. household formation seems to be stalling. Again. Last year, there were 117,707 households in December, 117,342 in April, and 117,816 in October. When Great Recession ended, there were 110,284 households in June 2009, and grew steadily, to 114,720 in … Continued
The chart below has fodder for both bulls and bears. At least going back to the last three decades – encompassing three recessions, including Great Recession – there have been five occasions in which the spot West Texas Intermediate crude … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of February 2, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: There you go! Again. Less than three months after instituting the first rate hike in nine years, Fed officials are behaving as if … Continued
If a chart gets retweeted 86 times, it is safe to say that the topic in question has touched a nerve in Twitter finance. The chart above had that distinction. The topic it highlighted thus deserves a post. So here … Continued
Later this morning, we get revised and detailed estimates of December’s durable goods data. The preliminary numbers were released last week, and there was no change in the trend. The trend is anything but going in the right direction. Orders … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of January 26, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Two important developments took place this week in central banking. First, the Fed. This week’s FOMC meeting was a non-event. No interest-rate decision … Continued
NYSE margin debt dropped 2.5 percent month-over-month in December, to $461.2 billion. The S&P 500 declined 1.8 percent in the month. Regardless if margin debt followed stocks lower or it was the other way round, what matters is that momentum … Continued
Later today, markets will learn if, when it comes to the so-called Fed put, it is game as usual or winds of change are beginning to blow. The Fed put refers to a practice of reducing interest rates to deal … Continued