Building on the crude theme a week ago, spot West Texas Intermediate crude did indeed break out of a declining trend line drawn from May 2015 (Chart 1). It rallied 3.3 percent for the week. For the last eight sessions, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016. 10-year note: Bloomberg ran a story on Tuesday saying the ECB would probably gradually wind down bond purchases before the end of quantitative easing, and that it may … Continued
U.S. banks’ commercial & industrial loans dropped $6.5 billion month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2.06 trillion (Chart 1). These loans have come a long way – rising from a cycle low of $1.18 trillion in … Continued
Chart 1 plots dividend yield for the 10 S&P 500 sectors. The data is as of 2Q16, hence financials still include real estate, which last month became a sector within its own right. The chart also includes buyback yield for … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 27, 2016. 10-year note: Once again, Mario Draghi, ECB chief, urged Eurozone governments to complement central-bank action. He was speaking before the European parliament on Monday. Mr. Draghi said there … Continued
Four and counting! That is the number of consecutive quarters S&P 500 companies have spent in dividends and buybacks more than they took in operating earnings. In 2Q16, these companies earned $222.8 billion out of operations, and doled out $98.3 … Continued
During the August 31-September 15 period, the Nasdaq composite rallied 0.7 percent – quite an achievement considering that at the lows on September 12 it was down as much as 2.2 percent. The tech-heavy index’s performance was also in contrast … Continued
This could very well be setting up like a tug of war between favorable seasonals and elevated multiples, with possible retest of make-or-break 2120 on the S&P 500 large cap index. Going back to 2009 when the bull market erupted, … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 20, 2016. 10-year note: A steeper yield curve is typically associated with a strengthening economy. So when the Bank of Japan says it will target a steeper yield curve, what … Continued
U.S. housing continues to send mixed signals … has been that way for a while. August’s existing home sales will be reported later this morning. July was down 3.2 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 … Continued