The third-quarter earnings season begins in a couple of weeks. Leading into this, operating earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies have continued to come under pressure (Chart 1), with 2015 now standing at $111.08, which will be down 1.7 percent … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 22, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: Last week, post-FOMC decision not to hike, stocks fell. They had rallied strongly into the meeting, and were probably set to drop either … Continued
Relatively speaking, U.S. housing is going strong, with price being the major risk. Monthly data tend to be volatile. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate in August, sales of existing homes dropped 4.8 percent month-over-month to 5.31 million units, even … Continued
The August swoon in U.S. stocks felt like it came out of nowhere, but it was slowly in the making. The S&P 500 index (1939) peaked in May at 2135, with sideways action since February this year… NYSE margin debt … Continued
SMH, the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF, does not act well. What might be the message for semis in particular and stocks in general? Before we try to draw an out-and-out negative conclusion from this, let us remember that between the … Continued
Volatility has been the name of the game in stocks in the past month. Between the August 18th intra-day high of $209.59 and the August 24th intra-day low of $181.46, SPY, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, lost north of 13 … Continued
Within a month, RVX, the Russell 2000 Volatility Index, has gone from 17.34 to 46.66 to now back down to 23.70. Volatility has been very volatile. Going back to early 2013, RVX has found support at 14, consistently rising off … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 15, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: When the Fed finally raises rates – whenever that is – ahead of that move should we now pay attention to fed funds … Continued
Are things really bad out there? Without a doubt, there is no shortage of things to worry about. From slowdown in China to volatility in emerging markets to continued deceleration in the global economy to the Fed possibly committing a … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of September 8, 2015. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: More jawboning this week! Following in the footsteps of Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, Kaushik Basu, World Bank chief economist, says the Fed … Continued