The ratio of VIX to VXV is below 0.80 in early trading today. Early October, it was grossly overbought and was begging us to go long stocks. Now it is the opposite. Near-term volatility has collapsed. In the past, whenever … Continued
Gold bears had big opportunity to push price lower on Monday Technicals acting better, except near-term conditions little overbought How hedge funds were reacting to Friday/Monday action will be a good tell Monday, gold had a solid excuse to melt … Continued
Facing lower earnings, several oil companies already plan to cut 2015 capex U.S. energy sector accounts for whopping one-third of S&P 500 capex Given drop in oil price, ‘15 S&P 500 EPS estimates too optimistic Oil’s sharp drop can reverberate … Continued
My essay was featured in this week’s Evergreen Virtual Advisor of Evergreen Gavekal (@EvergreenGK). The theme is the amount of divergences and disconnects out there and what it could mean for the markets. EVA+11.28.2014
Small-caps continue to lag their larger brethren RUT sitting on three-month resistance, breakout could be crucial Breakout not probable as bulls have already used up plenty of energy past five weeks Enough ink has been spilled over the issue of … Continued
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VIX:VXV itching to move higher, which could put stocks under pressure VIX suggests calm, but SKEW points to institutions buying tail-risk protection Put-to-call ratios have had extreme readings past several sessions on both CBOE, ISE The S&P 500 Large Cap … Continued
Economy was probably not reason why QE2/3 got launched, stock sell-off was One month after QE1/2 ended, stocks began to act sick, prompting Fed into action Year-end rally may or may not happen; impending sell-off to test Fed’s pain threshold … Continued
Improvement in gold’s price action in recent sessions Key will be if non-commercials begin to add to net long gold futures Looks to be bottoming, but still tentative; short GLD puts safe way to go for now Gold ($1,187.9) is … Continued
Big tailwind for stocks has come from grossly oversold technical conditions Several indicators are lagging – failing to confirm recovery highs in major U.S. indices Some signs stocks want to rest; could be important as SPX sits right underneath major … Continued