Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 164k, down 12.5k. The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady at 225-250 basis points. This was expected. What was not expected was the dovish … Continued
The Fed Wednesday held interest rates steady. No surprise there. But the bank was even more dovish than markets expected. That was a surprise. Even more surprising is how stocks reacted. The Fed Wednesday left the fed funds rate unchanged … Continued
Stocks continue to trudge higher. Volume is low and action listless. But price tells us otherwise. Amidst this, some divergences are showing up, and they are worth paying attention. Equity bulls deserve kudos. Since the October-December decline last year, they … Continued
The Fed meets this week. It already shifted its bias from hawkish to dovish, helping stocks. With the economy softening, in due course the Fed may once again deploy balance sheet as a tool, which will initially help stocks, but … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 176.4k, down 56.9k. Non-commercials continue to cut back net shorts, which late September last year was at a new record. The 10-year Treasury yield … Continued
Since late December, US stocks have rallied massively. Yet, investor sentiment has not caught up. Reason for bulls to worry or rejoice? The answer may lie in who decisively wins the bull-bear tug of war around 2800 on S&P 500. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 5, 2019. 10-year note: Currently net short 233.4k, down 619. The rally in the 10-year Treasury yield (2.63 percent) from July 2016, when rates bottomed at 1.34 percent, ended last October … Continued
Corporate buybacks were the savior last year, even as investors took cash out of equities and foreigners reduced exposure to US stocks. The status quo needs to change. Bulls cannot continue betting on continued buyback momentum. On a 12-month rolling … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 26, 2019. Beginning December 21, the CFTC was not able to publish reports on time due to the partial shutdown of the federal government. After the government reopened, it published one … Continued
US stocks are on fire. The Russell 2000/IWM was essentially unchanged last week, with the index down 0.03 percent and the ETF up 0.06 percent. This followed nine weeks of persistent rally, during which they jumped 34 percent. Conditions are … Continued