Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 25, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 280.7k, down 1.6k. After seven years of keeping the fed funds rate between zero and 25 basis points, the Fed began to hike in … Continued
In U.S. equities, several sentiment measures are flashing red. The difficulty in using these as a signal is that they have been doing so for a while, even as U.S. stocks continue to rally to new and newer highs. Since … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the July 1-14 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq The bearish engulfing candle of June 9 when the composite … Continued
The lack of volatility in volatility is once again giving rise to the phrase ‘it is different this time”. If past is any guide, it seldom is. Spot VIX just created a record. VIX goes back to January 1990. In … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 18, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 282.3k, up 25.3k. Through Wednesday, $1.1 billion moved into TLT (iShares 20+year Treasury bond ETF) this month (courtesy of ETF.com). In late April, non-commercials … Continued
Once again, XLF (SPDR financial ETF) has been denied at resistance that goes back a decade. In December 2015, for the first time since July 2006, the Fed raised the fed funds rate. It was a 25-basis-point increase to a … Continued
Yet another high on the S&P 500 large cap index – 25th new closing high year-to-date. The index is now $21 trillion rich! To reach that milestone, it rallied 0.5 percent last Friday to 2463.54 before closing at 2459.27 – … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 11, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 257k, down 5.9k. On Tuesday, markets interpreted Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony as dovish. Ten-year T-yields fell four basis points to 2.33 … Continued
Here is a brief review of period-over-period change in short interest in the June 16-30 period in the Nasdaq and NYSE Group as well as nine S&P 500 sectors. Nasdaq The 50-day moving average was slightly breached, but support at … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of July 3, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 263k, down 39.1k. The speed by which long rates rose the past couple of weeks took many by surprise. Intraday between June 26 and … Continued