The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 12, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: TLT, the iShares 20+ year treasury bond ETF, was punished for a 3.6-percent drop this week. This followed a parabolic rally, particularly after … Continued
Next week’s economic calendar is housing-heavy. Monday brings the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for July, Tuesday housing starts for June, and Thursday existing home sales for June. Builder sentiment remained stuck at 58 for four months through May, before … Continued
Table 1 was posted in last Tuesday’s blog. It is apropos to be discussing it again. The table tallies instances of rallies of five percent or above on the S&P 500 over four sessions. Going back six years, there have … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of July 5, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: One can make a cogent argument that U.S. sovereign bonds are in a blow-off phase. Since late May through the Friday high, TLT, … Continued
Are U.S. sovereign bonds in a blow-off phase? Tough to say, but they have had quite a rally. Yields on both 30-year bonds and 10-year notes this week made new all-time lows. Post-Brexit, demand for long bonds from major countries, … Continued
Post-Brexit two-session sell-off in stocks was a clear risk-off. The S&P 500 large cap index dropped 5.3 percent in those two sessions. The subsequent four-session, 5.1-percent surge through last Friday was risk-on. Risk-off quickly followed by risk-on! The average investor … Continued
As far as U.S. stocks were concerned, Brexit was just a bad dream. A footnote, so to speak. On the S&P 500 large cap index, the intra-day high of 2113.32 in the session before Brexit hit stands, but last Friday’s … Continued
The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of June 28, 2016. Change is week-over-week. 10-year note: On Friday last week and Monday this week, the S&P 500 index lost 5.3 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield lost 29 basis points … Continued
Equity bulls put the foot down where they could possibly have. Support at 1990 on the S&P 500 large cap index was defended on Monday (Chart 1). This followed a post-Brexit 5.3-percent dive in just a couple of sessions. Using … Continued
From last week’s Thursday close through this Monday, the US dollar index jumped 3.4 percent. This was the sharpest two-session increase since it rallied 3.6 percent on September 29, 1992. That is how far back one has to go in … Continued