Spot West Texas Intermediate crude, up 54-plus percent since last June alone, is giving out signs of fatigue. Non-commercials have been on the right side of this trade. As they usually are. These traders follow the trend, and the trend … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 9, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 196.9k, up 121k. Is this the big one? The big breakout in 10-year Treasury yields, that is? The 10-year has been trapped in a … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of January 2, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 75.8k, down 7.8k. It is on. Doves versus hawks. At least for now. FOMC minutes for the December 12-13 meeting highlighted the growing tension … Continued
Gold shows nice price action, just broke past $1,300/ounce, and has room to rally further, particularly if non-commercial futures traders continue to keep the faith and/or the U.S. dollar weakens further. Most recently, the yellow metal bottomed at $1,238.30 on … Continued
Non-commercial futures traders tend to be trend followers, and do a pretty good job of it except at inflection points. Chart 1 plots these traders’ holdings in Russell 2000 mini-index futures (ICE and CME combined) with the cash. The two … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 26, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 83.7k, up 39.4k. No one said a breakout of this significance would be easy. Last week, 10-year yields closed right underneath a three-decade-old descending … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 19, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net short 44.2k, down 89k. Is the big one around the corner? The big breakout, that is? Ten-year Treasury yields, at one point at 2.5 percent, … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 12, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 44.7k, up 30.4k. The Fed and the Administration are not on the same page when it comes to expected growth in the U.S. economy. … Continued
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 5, 2017. 10-year note: Currently net long 14.3k, down 109.6k. On Tuesday next week, a two-day FOMC meeting begins. This is the eighth – and last – meeting this year. A … Continued
QQQ (PowerShares QQQ Nasdaq ETF) finds itself at an interesting juncture. The ETF (153.50) peaked at 156.69 seven sessions ago, before coming under heavy selling pressure in two separate sessions (Chart 1). The bulls nonetheless are putting their foot down, … Continued